Virus Evolution

An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was deemed a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026. To prevent cross-border importation, many countries, including the United States, Canada, India, Thailand, and Kenya have already proposed containment strategies, and others are likely to follow suit. How well (or poorly) are screening and quarantine containment measures are likely to work? We leverage established epidemiological theory and develop a mathematical model of traveler screening and post-arrival quarantine for BVD to answer this question. We find that traveler screening via symptom screening or molecular testing will miss the majority of infected travelers, and should be complemented by post-arrival quarantine and monitoring of sufficient duration to detect those with long incubation periods. Our findings underscore the limitations of border screening and the importance of complementary measures like post-arrival quarantine to prevent local importation of BVD.

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) causes acute lower respiratory infections, primarily affecting young children and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks peaking annually in March or April in the United States and other temperate regions in the Northern hemisphere. However, the factors driving HMPV seasonality in the United States remain poorly understood. We analyzed laboratory-confirmed HMPV cases and age-specific emergency department visits across 10 US regions, fitting an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to assess spatiotemporal patterns and investigate the influence of environmental variables and viral interference from RSV on HMPV transmission rates. We found that models incorporating climate variables into the transmission rate, including vapor pressure, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature, could not capture the timing of HMPV activity across all regions. Instead, HMPV timing was associated with RSV activity, with the HMPV transmission rate reduced in the presence of RSV. We showed that, unlike RSV, only models incorporating viral interference could reproduce the biennial pattern of HMPV observed in some regions, characterized by alternating late-small and early-large epidemics. Furthermore, our model successfully reproduced post-COVID-19 HMPV and RSV epidemics and predicted that RSV interventions are not likely to lead to a substantial increase in HMPV activity despite decreasing competition from RSV. Our work unravels the spatiotemporal dynamics of HMPV and its interaction with RSV, informing future seasonal forecasting and intervention strategies for HMPV.

Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning - or seroreversion - biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.

Vaccines to prevent infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease are advancing, with licensure likely based on safety and immunologic endpoints rather than clinical efficacy data. This approach requires robust, generalisable serological thresholds of risk reduction (SToRRs). We combined data from six case-control studies in Europe and Africa to define SToRRs for early-onset (EOD) and late-onset (LOD) GBS disease. Across diverse epidemiological and healthcare settings, anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations were consistently higher in infants who remained disease free than in those who developed disease. Higher antibody concentrations were required to reduce the risk of EOD than LOD, and higher concentrations were required for serotype Ia than for serotype III. This study provides a quantitative framework to support correlates-based evaluation and potential licensure of maternal GBS vaccines.

Background Healthcare-associated infections pose a major burden to neonatal health worldwide and remain difficult to track in low-resource hospitals because patient movement data and pathogen genomic data are rarely integrated into actionable transmission models. Existing approaches are often restricted to specific settings, highly structured electronic health records (EHRs), or analyses focused on either patient movements or pathogen characteristics alone. To address this gap, we developed PathoPath, an open-source integrative modelling platform, and evaluated its utility in a high burden paediatric hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Methods PathoPath is an open-source R package that combines electronic health records with whole genome sequencing data to generate contact networks from direct and indirect contacts using minimal structured inputs. We retrospectively applied PathoPath to 373 cases of Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex (KpSC) infection identified in 2021 at the largest paediatric referral hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Ward level patient movement trajectories were used to reconstruct contact networks, and genomic data from isolates from children <60 days were integrated to identify probable dissemination of bacterial clones and antimicrobial resistance plasmids. Findings PathoPath identified 750 direct contacts among 317 patients, forming 25 connected components, with the largest including 93 patients. KpSC infections were identified across 21 of 37 wards, with the neonatal intensive care unit accounting for 77.9% of all cases. Integration of genomic and network data distinguished sustained clustering of ST147 from multiple probable inter-clonal dissemination events involving IncFII plasmids carrying blaNDM-5 and/or blaOXA-181 within ST16. Four dominant sequence types accounted for 65.6% of sequenced isolates, and carbapenemase genes were detected in 95.8%. Interpretation PathoPath reconstructs hospital-wide contact networks and integrates them with pathogen genomics to map probable dissemination of pathogens and antimicrobial resistance using minimal structured clinical data. It could support more targeted infection prevention and control in hospitals where granular digital records are not available.

Heart transplantation (HT) is the durable therapy for end-stage heart failure (HF). Despite advances in immunosuppression, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) remains a leading cause of late graft failure and mortality in the modern era. Prior studies have established donor age and immunological phenomena, such as acute cellular rejection (ACR), antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), and development of donor-specific antibodies (DSAs) as risk factors for CAV. However, it remains unclear whether acute rejection (AR) that occurs early post-HT, when individuals experience the highest degree of immunosuppression, reflects higher baseline immune activity and confers a higher risk of future CAV compared to later AR, when immunosuppression is minimized. We therefore examined whether AR occurring during pre-specified early and intermediate intervals compared to those who did not experience AR in the first post-HT year was associated with future CAV among recipients without CAV at 1 year.

Introduction: Synthetic oligopeptides provide a rapid and cost-efficient approach to developing antibodies and diagnostics for emerging viral variants. Methods: This study computationally and experimentally characterized a synthetic peptide analog of the SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomain 2 major disulfide loop (SD2MDL), designated S621 (CPVAIHADQLTPTWRVYSTC). Binding affinity was computationally estimated using the Heuristic Affinity Prediction Tool for Immune Complexes (HAPTIC), while experimental validation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with rabbit-derived antipeptide antibodies. Clinical diagnostic accuracy testing was done using plasma samples from RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients and pre-COVID-19 controls. Results: S621 demonstrated nanomolar binding affinity (Kdapp = 1.14 nM) and high avidity (3.67 nM), closely matching HAPTIC predictions (3.54 nM). Diagnostic evaluation yielded a sensitivity of 89.92% and specificity of 27.79%, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 71.79%. Discussion: These findings demonstrate that a single synthetic peptide derived from a conserved spike subdomain can function as a high-affinity surrogate for full-length antigens, supporting its potential application in rapid peptide-based immunodiagnostics.

In spite of well-established global immune landscape, SARS-CoV-2 is still able to further spread and continue causing infection waves. The current understanding about the reason behind is limited, and it is still difficult to predict the evolution or spreading tread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate whether the establishment of population immunity has changed the virus evolution or spreading pattern. In this investigation, one overall analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in the past several years have been carried out through one thorough genomic epidemiology study, with Germany being chosen as one representative location in view of the systemic efforts for genomic surveillance. The growth advantage of a few predominant variants in its early spreading period has been evaluated through a logistic regression model. The results have revealed that the major circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2023 are mainly derived from the Omicron BA.2 family. Since middle of 2024, most predominant variants were produced primarily through recombination, indicating that the evolution derived from recombination might be the major driving force for the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 despite the existence of population immunity. Furthermore, the lower growth advantage of recently emerged variants might possibly lead to a tread of reduction in the frequency of infection wave. The information revealed from this investigation suggests that although short-term spreading tread can be affected by specific virus feature as well as local immunity landscape, the long-term spreading tread is mainly decided by the genomic diversity of the viruses, and can be predicted through phylogenetic and genomic epidemiology investigation. The results have emphasized the importance of maintaining the efforts for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, which is essential from both medical and research perspectives.

Rationale: Reliable electroencephalography (EEG) biomarkers of cortical excitability could improve diagnosis and longitudinal monitoring in epilepsy, yet it remains unclear which metrics best balance sensitivity across individuals with intra-individual stability over time. Methods: We analyzed scalp EEG recordings from the open-access Temple University Hospital EEG Epilepsy Corpus, comprising 1,404 recordings from 96 individuals with neurologist-confirmed epilepsy and 85 healthy controls across multiple sessions. Eight global measures were computed: aperiodic exponent and offset, sample entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis exponent and derived index, spatial gamma-band phase consistency, and absolute and relative alpha power. Group differences were assessed by permutation tests with false discovery rate correction at recording, session, and subject levels. Associations with antiseizure medication burden, temporal stability, and cross-metric correlation structure were evaluated as secondary analyses. Results: Aperiodic parameters showed the most robust case-control separation, remaining significant after subject-level averaging (exponent: median difference = 0.20, q = 0.010; offset: median difference = 0.25, q = 0.011). Entropy and alpha power distinguished groups at the recording and session levels, while gamma-band phase consistency was significant at the session level only; none of these survived subject-level averaging, suggesting greater state-dependency. Higher medication burden was associated with reductions in alpha power and detrended fluctuation analysis, and adjusting for it substantially attenuated group differences, though residual effects in the aperiodic exponent persisted. Cross-metric correlation structure was preserved between groups but modestly reorganized by medication burden. Conclusions: Aperiodic spectral parameters are the most robust EEG markers of epilepsy, reflecting stable trait-like network properties. Complexity and synchrony measures capture complementary, state-sensitive dimensions. Medication burden substantially influences multiple metrics, underscoring the need to account for pharmacological effects when interpreting EEG biomarkers in epilepsy.

Gene therapy is rapidly emerging as a transformative treatment for monogenic neurological disorders, including pediatric movement disorders such as aromatic L-amino acid decarboxylase (AADC) deficiency. However, its success critically depends on defining target cells and windows for therapeutic intervention. Here, we present an open-access single-nucleus transcriptomic atlas of the human basal ganglia spanning a therapy-relevant window from second/third trimester to the perinatal period and adulthood. Across 35,755 nuclei, we identify major (non-)neuronal cell types, retrace developmental trajectories, and characterize gene-regulatory networks. We identify so far unrecognized human-specific expression of key neuronal signaling genes, including GNAO1 and ADCY5, and discuss the implications for targeted gene replacement therapies. Unexpectedly, we found that the Huntingtin gene (HTT) is already expressed during prenatal stages of human brain development, supporting a previously proposed neurodevelopmental component of Huntington's disease, which should be considered in diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Moreover, FOXG1 expression and regulon activity are predominantly located in a prenatal time window, suggesting constraints on the effectiveness of postnatal interventions. Our findings highlight the importance of datasets capturing human brain development in real time and provide a publicly available resource to guide precision gene therapy strategies in the future.

Objective: Several endotypes contribute to the development of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). However, efforts to measure these endotypes have been challenging. In this paper, we propose a new method that overcomes some of these challenges. Methods: To test the feasibility of this new method, data from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) were analyzed and two oxygen-based endotypes were identified and plotted on a graphical model: the steady-state SpO2 and the SpO2 arousal threshold. The first is the oxygen saturation that would occur during sleep if there were no arousals, and it is a measure of upper airway collapsibility (a more collapsible airway produces a lower SpO2). The latter is the oxygen saturation that triggers arousals. These endotypes were validated by assessing their ability to detect positional and state-related changes in airway collapsibility and arousal threshold. Results: The study showed that it was feasible to measure oxygen-based endotypes in 95% of SHHS participants. As expected, steady-state SpO2 was lower during supine vs. non-supine sleep, as well as during REM vs. NREM sleep. Also, the SpO2 arousal threshold was similar between supine and non-supine sleep. However, SpO2 arousal threshold was not lower in REM sleep vs. NREM sleep. Therefore, in 3 of the 4 conditions, the oxygen-based endotypes moved in the expected direction due to positional or sleep state changes. Conclusion: Although further validation experiments are required, this study indicates that OSA endotyping using the pulse oximetry signal is feasible. The oxygen-based endotypes could be used to aid therapeutic decision making.

Caveolinopathies caused by CAV3 mutations present with heterogeneous clinical phenotypes ranging from asymptomatic hyperCKemia to limb-girdle-type muscular dystrophy. Although prior imaging studies have described commonly affected muscles, structured modeling of muscle involvement patterns in caveolinopathy has not been established. We analyzed whole-body skeletal muscle computed tomography imaging in eight patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic CAV3 variants, comprising 14 imaging study samples. Fat infiltration across 43 muscles was graded using modified Mercuri scores. Computational multivariate analysis,including principal component analysis, clustering, and pseudotime modeling,was applied to characterize severity staging and distribution patterns. A statistically supported, stage-dependent continuum of muscle involvement was identified. Most samples demonstrated a distributed limb-girdle-predominant pattern with coordinated progression across muscle clusters. In contrast, one patient (three samples in longitudinal series) exhibited a compartment-restricted thigh-dominant pattern characterized by early posterior and medial thigh involvement. Rectus femoris showed consistent stage-dependent progression, while greater medial gastrocnemius involvement was associated with advanced severity. None of the patients exhibited clinical evidence of rippling muscle disease. These findings suggest that integrating semi-quantitative imaging with computational modeling may provide an objective framework for characterizing muscle involvement patterns in CAV3-related myopathy.

Women's disproportionate responsibility for unpaid domestic and care work, including water collection, remains a barrier to gender equality globally and may constrain women's ability to engage in income-generating activities. We compared women's and men's time use in rural Kenya and Honduras and assessed whether women's time spent on water collection and income-generating activities differed between communities that had or had not received an improved water source from World Vision. We also examined the measurement of time-use agency among women and men. In-person surveys were conducted in July-August 2024 with 95 participants (48 women, 47 men) in six Kenyan communities and 102 participants (53 women, 49 men) in six Honduran communities. Surveys included a 24-hour time-use recall module and items on time-use agency. Analyses compared time use by gender and by community intervention status (improved vs. not yet improved water supply), and confirmatory factor analysis assessed the validity of the time-use agency measure. Women in both study sites spent substantially more time than men on unpaid domestic and care work activities, including cooking, cleaning, laundry, and caregiving. In Kenya, women also spent significantly more time collecting water. Men spent more time sleeping (Kenya), on paid work (Honduras), unpaid agricultural work (both settings), and traveling (both settings). Across both countries, there were no significant differences between intervention and comparison communities in women's time spent on water collection or income-generating activities. In Kenya, most respondents reported high influence over their time, and six items showed strong validity for measuring instrumental time-use agency. Women's time burdens remained high even in communities that had received improved water sources, including at the household level. Our results suggest that more transformative water infrastructure, combined with interventions that address gendered social norms, may be needed to meaningfully reduce women's domestic work burden and support their economic empowerment.

Background. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring an estimated 1--5~million international visitors to 11~US host cities between June~11 and July~19, 2026---the largest tournament in history. Large-scale international gatherings accelerate importation of infectious diseases from diverse source populations. Advance estimation of importation risk is essential for public health preparedness and surveillance prioritization. Methods. We developed a Poisson importation framework applied to five diseases (dengue fever, influenza, malaria, measles, and pertussis) across the 11~US venue cities. Three nested travel models of increasing resolution were constructed: a baseline model using routine June~2024 arrival data; a World Cup--adjusted model incorporating projected visitor growth factors; and a schedule-driven model routing WC fans to specific cities based on match assignments. WHO incidence and BTS T-100 routing fractions were combined with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (5,000 Uniform draws on under-reporting and travel-while-infectious parameters) to yield median importation estimates with 95\% uncertainty intervals. Results. Dengue posed the highest importation risk at most venue cities under the schedule-driven model (median $\Lambda > 10$ expected importations from Brazil alone; 95\% uncertainty interval 5.9--33.1), robust across the full literature-supported parameter range; Atlanta was the exception, where malaria probability exceeded dengue, driven by direct travel from West and Central African nations. Influenza ranked second at most cities, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter peak. Pertussis showed broad geographic spread but carries the widest relative uncertainty, as the assumed detection rate sits at the upper bound of the literature range. Background tourism accounted for the dominant share of total importation risk; the World Cup fan increment contributed approximately 8.3\% of projected arrivals for WC-qualified nations. Conclusions. This Poisson importation framework, built entirely from publicly available data, provides reproducible importation risk estimates for mass gathering events. The framework extends to additional diseases, cities, and gatherings, offering a transparent baseline complementary to proprietary modeling systems.

Objective. Persistent, distressing psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are associated with neurobiological alterations and increased psychosis risk. We combined individual-level neuroimaging measures with effect sizes from large neuroimaging studies to create a summary score ('Psychosis Neuroscore') reflecting neuroanatomic liability for psychosis, and examined its ability to predict PLE trajectories in young adolescents. Method. Using latent growth mixture models, we estimated PLE trajectories from four annual visits of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N=9584, ages 9-10 at baseline). Using baseline T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging data, we calculated Psychosis Neuroscores, as well as Neuroscores for two psychiatric disorders with late adolescent/adult onset (Major Depressive Disorder, Bipolar Disorder). We compared Psychosis Neuroscores to i) other psychiatric Neuroscores, ii) modifiable risk factors, and iii) established risk factors in predicting trajectory membership. Results. We identified four trajectories of distressing PLEs: Persistent Elevated (N=1,968, 21%), Gradual Decreasing (N=3,424, 36%), Rapid Decreasing (N=1,593, 17%) and Low/No Distress (N=2,599, 27%). Adolescents with Persistent Elevated PLEs had significantly higher Multimodal (combined T1 and diffusion-weighted) and T1-weighted Psychosis Neuroscores than all other trajectories (Odds Ratios [ORs] 1.27-1.34,pFDR<.01). Bipolar Disorder Neuroscores showed a similar pattern (ORs 1.16-1.23,pFDR<.01). Psychosis Neuroscores showed comparable associations with established risk factors in predicting trajectory membership, but smaller associations than modifiable risk factors, including screen time, physical activity, and sleep disturbances. Conclusion. Psychosis Neuroscores differentiate youth with persistent PLEs from those with decreasing, remitting or low PLEs, demonstrating their potential utility for early risk stratification. Integration with established risk factors may enhance psychosis risk prediction in youth.

Background: 48,XXYY syndrome is a rare sex chromosome aneuploidy (SCA) characterized by neurodevelopmental deficits and medical comorbidities. The limited information available in the literature is almost exclusively limited to postnatally diagnosed cases. This study aims to describe the early medical and developmental features of prenatally identified 48,XXYY infants, with comparisons to 47,XYY, 47,XXY cohorts, and typical populations, as well as previously reported postnatally diagnosed 48,XXYY cases. Methods: The eXtraordinarY Babies Study prospectively follows children prenatally identified to be at high risk for SCA with annual medical and neurodevelopmental evaluations. Data presented herein include the prevalence of medical conditions, developmental milestones, developmental and adaptive functioning assessment scores, and therapy utilization in participants confirmed to have 48,XXYY. Comparisons were made between this cohort and the typical population, infants with 47,XYY and 47,XXY also enrolled in the eXtraordinarY Babies Study, and a 2008 cohort of individuals postnatally identified 48,XXYY. Results: Infants with 48,XXYY exhibited a range of early medical features, including high rates of feeding and GI disorders (breastfeeding difficulties, gastroesophageal reflux, and eosinophilic esophagitis), allergic disorders (food allergies and environmental allergies), and hypotonia. Developmental and adaptive functioning scores indicated delays in motor, communication, and social domains, with nearly all infants receiving speech therapy, physical and/or occupational therapy. Comparisons with the 47,XYY and 47,XXY cohorts revealed more medical and developmental challenges in the 48,XXYY group, however there was variability and some overlap with both the general population and sex chromosome trisomy conditions. Additionally, comparison to the 2008 postnatally identified 48,XXYY cohort indicated that while prenatal diagnosis allowed for earlier intervention, developmental outcomes in the first years of life were similar between the two groups. Conclusions: 48,XXYY diagnosed prenatally facilitates early monitoring, anticipatory guidance, and proactive referrals for medical evaluations and intervention, given developmental delays and medical challenges are more common in infancy and early childhood compared to the general population and trisomy SCAs. These findings provide valuable insights for genetic counselors and healthcare providers, emphasizing the spectrum of medical and developmental findings and importance of early and proactive care to support individual outcomes. Prospective study of this prenatally identified cohort will provide important natural history and phenotypic variability in XXYY, as well as identification of predictors of health and developmental outcomes.

Flow cytometry can establish T cell clonality by detecting a restricted expression pattern of the T cell receptor (TCR) {beta} constant region (TRBC), expressed in association with CD3. However, T cell neoplasms frequently lose surface expression of the CD3/TCR complex, posing a challenge to demonstrating T cell lineage and clonality. To address this challenge, here we present a 12-color flow cytometry panel, called cytoTCR, to characterize cytoplasmic expression of CD3/TCR complex components. We apply cytoTCR to 38 patient specimens with immunophenotypically abnormal T cell populations, demonstrating this approach can efficiently establish T cell lineage and clonality in challenging T cell neoplasms that have lost surface CD3 expression. While we show that natural killer (NK)-lineage neoplasms can express cytoplasmic CD3 at similar levels to T cells, we show that absent expression of cytoplasmic TCR components by mature lymphocytes can help confirm NK cell lineage. We demonstrate that cytoTCR can detect cytoplasmic TRBC-restriction in challenging cases of null-phenotype anaplastic large cell lymphoma, which lack surface expression of pan-T cell antigens. In cases of T-lymphoblastic leukemia, cytoTCR shows that cytoplasmic TRBC expression matches the expected developmental stage of the leukemia. Finally, we use cytoTCR to characterize atypical cCD3-CD7- T cells in a patient with a history of T-lymphoblastic leukemia as well as recent CAR-T therapy, showing that this atypical population is polytypic and represents CAR-T product rather than residual disease. Our study presents a broadly applicable flow cytometric approach to simultaneously assess T cell lineage and clonality in suspected T lineage populations with absent surface CD3 expression.

Objective To verify the reliability of a self developed bowel sound monitoring device under real biological tissue acoustic propagation conditions using a controllable sound source, and to establish quantitative evidence for its translational applicability. Methods Freshly euthanized six month old Bama miniature pigs were used as an experimental model. A high fidelity Bluetooth audio playback device was implanted into the abdominal cavity to deliver manually annotated bowel sound recordings as controllable acoustic stimuli. A self developed bowel sound monitoring device was fixed on the abdominal surface for continuous signal acquisition. Playback timestamps were defined as the ground truth, and event level matching was performed within a predefined temporal tolerance window. Four performance indicators were evaluated: (1) bowel sound acquisition and energy amplification, (2) event matching accuracy, (3) acoustic feature consistency, and (4) subjective agreement assessed by blinded auscultation from gastroenterologists with different levels of clinical experience. Results The monitoring device exhibited stable detection capability and effectively covered the full spectral range of the original signals. It significantly enhanced bowel sound energy while preserving temporal and spectral characteristics, demonstrating high consistency in time and frequency domain features. Blinded clinician assessments showed a subjective agreement rate of 88.9% between original and surface recorded bowel sound events. Conclusions Under real tissue acoustic propagation conditions, the self-developed bowel sound monitoring device reliably captures bowel sound events with high temporal accuracy, acoustic fidelity, and clinical perceptual consistency. This controllable sound source based validation provides robust technical evidence for subsequent in vivo studies and clinical translation, supporting the development of objective and continuous gastrointestinal function monitoring.

Background: In the absence of high-resolution response data, exposure-response modelling often relies on aggregated low-frequency exposure data, leading to loss of high-resolution information. Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) from econometrics offers an alternative but is limited due to its inability to make high-resolution predictions, inflexible likelihoods and penalised nonlinear functions, and limited visualization options. We propose a mixed-frequency Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (mf-DLNM) which can eliminate the need to aggregate exposure data in environmental epidemiology and provide high resolution predictions for time series studies. Methods: We evaluated the inference and predictive performance of the mf-DLNM. To evaluate its ability to estimate exposure-response relationships, we applied mf-DLNM and same-frequency (sf)-DLNM using data from the West Midlands, UK. Additionally, we compared the predictive performance of mf-DLNM with sf-DLNM and MIDAS across nine regions of England. As MIDAS cannot predict at the resolution of the predictor (daily), we compared the predictive performance of mf-DLNM and MIDAS at weekly resolution. To test the model's ability to predict high temporal resolution risk (daily), we compared sf-DLNM (with access to daily mortality counts) with mf-DLNM (with access only to weekly mortality counts). Results: In the West Midlands example, mf-DLNM performed comparably to sf-DLNM in estimating daily risk of temperature on respiratory mortality. Furthermore, mf-DLNM and MIDAS exhibited similar performance for weekly predictions. For high-resolution predictions, mf-DLNM and sf-DLNM showed nearly similar performance, despite mf-DLNM having access only to low-resolution response data. Conclusion: This mixed-frequency approach in environmental epidemiology overcomes the limitations of predicting health risks using aggregated exposure data and provides estimates of high-resolution outcomes in the absence of high-frequency health outcome datasets.

To understand the utility of healthcare facility-level wastewater surveillance (WWS) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it is important to correlate wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection with the number of clinical infections. WWS for SARS-CoV-2 was performed at three skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) over 25 weeks. Electronegative membrane filtration (enMF) and Nanotrap(R) Magnetic Virus Particles (NP) virus concentration methods were compared. Extracts were tested by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction. Spearman's correlations ({rho}) between wastewater virus RNA concentrations and infection counts were calculated. From split wastewater samples, enMF recovered higher SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations than NP. Combining data from all facilities, the median concentrations were 53.0 versus 38.6 gc/100 mL for enMF and NP, respectively (p=0.001). Using enMF, correlations were moderate to strong at SNF A ({rho} ranged 0.67 to 0.86, all p-values <0.001). Weak to moderate correlations can be explained by the sampled manhole not representing the entire facility (SNF B, {rho} ranged 0.47 to 0.72, p-values ranged <0.001 to 0.12) and longitudinal data gaps from summer heat and equipment maintenance (SNF C, {rho} ranged 0.14 to 0.59, p-values ranged 0.52 to <0.01). WWS can be a valuable tool for tracking dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in healthcare facilities.